시스템다이내믹스 관점에서 본 SIR-기반 실업 모델링 연구

초록

Unemployment is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects productivity changes and employment status in the labor market. In fact, the unemployment rate is defined in the relationship of non-linear population dynamics in which the number of unemployed and employed, and the number of job seekers and jobs are affected by macroeconomic influences. This paper investigates the unemployment dynamics by establishing an unemployment rate model based on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected Recovered) model as a system dynamics method. The unemployment model of this study is built on the basis of actual data values from 1990 to 2019, and as a result of the simulation, this model can verify the validity of the working-age population, the economically active population, the unemployed and the employed, all showing similar trends with the actual data values. In the unemployment model of system dynamics, the trend of economic growth reflects the characteristics of the unemployment rate.

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