Shaping of the Future under the Shadow of the Past: Sino-Japanese Relations in Retrospect and Prospect

초록

The contemporary Sino-Japanese relations can best be described as a parallel of political competition and economic interdependence. With the Joint Security Declaration of 1996, Japan pronounced that it would continue to remain as the closest ally of the U.S. in the 21st century. It is premature to predict that the Sino-Japanese relations will be competitive due to the inevitable American-Chinese clash presumed by Samuel Huntington. Considering consecutive emergency legislation in conjunction with the new Defense Guidelines of 1997, the room for Japans independent diplomatic brokerage however looks slim. Should Japanese diplomats wish to expand its strategic maneuvering between the U.S. and China, it should be more sensitive to Chinas historical awareness of the Taiwan issue. Historically, Korea has served the bridgehead for Japans expansion into the continent. As long as China casts suspicious eyes over Japanese military role in an emergency on the Korean peninsula, Sino-Japanese relations would be caught by the lingering memories of the Sino-Japan War in 1895. However, in case Japan comes up with earnest mind to help the North Korean economy in return for the freeze of its nuclear game, Chinese sense of security threat concerning the Korean peninsula will significantly diminish. Since Deng Xiao-pings economic reforms, both Japan and China have benefited from the increased economic intercourse. If Japan wishes to prolong these favorable interactions, it needs to be careful not to spark Chinese distrust of Japan by recklessly endorsing possible decentralization movement among the newly prosperous areas. From the unfortunate loss of control over Manchuria in 1930s, the Chinese leadership is excessively vigilant and wary of any foreign alliance with domestic economic forces. For promoting friendly relations with China, Japan needs to maintain the attitude of separation of politics and business. To sum, future bilateral relations between China and Japan are largely d