상품공간모형을 활용한 5대 제조강국 간 산업경쟁력 비교 분석

초록

Purpose – This study aims to compare industrial competitiveness across five major manufacturing economies—China, Korea, Japan, Germany, and the United States—by applying the Product Space model. It seeks to identify structural differences in export specialization and assess each country’s potential for industrial upgrading based on technological relatedness and product complexity. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using UN Comtrade HS-6 export data covering the period 2013–2023, the study constructs product proximity matrices to represent technological relatedness among products. Product complexity (PCI) is estimated using the Method of Reflections, while network density is calculated as the proximity-weighted share of products in which a country holds revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Correlation analysis and country-specific quantile regression are employed to examine the relationships among RCA, PCI, and density across different segments of the product distribution. Findings – The results reveal clear cross-country contrasts. China exhibits high network density but relatively low average PCI, indicating strong diversification potential but limited capacity to transition into highly complex sectors. In contrast, Korea, Japan, and Germany display lower density levels combined with higher PCI, reflecting specialization in technologically advanced and high-value manufacturing industries. The United States shows a mixed pattern, with moderate overall PCI but str Research Implications – These findings demonstrate that dense export networks alone do not ensure technological upgrading; integration into high-complexity product clusters is essential. The study highlights structural complementarities among advanced manufacturing economies and provides insights for designing targeted industrial and cooperation strategies to support sustainable upgrading.

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