한⋅중 부가가치 무역구조 측면에서의 신남방정책 고찰

초록

This study examines New Southern Policy of Korea from the value- added trade perspective. By disaggregating gross trade into Domestic Value Added Export, Foreign content, and double counted contents etc. It was developed by KWW(2014) and WWZ(2014). This paper utilized the method which fragment export by 16 individuals based on WIOD(World Input- Output database) supported European Commision. This IO table includes 43 countries and 56 sectors. Using this analysis, It have studied to describe how ASEAN countries have been engaged in the GVC(Global Value Chain). This paper analyzed based three scenarios, which can show the prospect of more consolidated global economic integration. Through this analysis, it aims to bring political implications for implementing New Southern Policy for Korea effectively. The main findings of this paper are as follows. Firstly, ASEAN countries had significant differences in the types of participating in the global value chain. For example, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam were integrated in GVC, especially with China. Especially Indonesia, however, did not participate in Global Production Network yet. In terms of Korea, Japan, China, they significantly diverged its trade structure with ASEAN countries. When Japan export its product to ASEAN, they do not fragment its production network and maximize its domestic value added comparing Korea and China. Secondly, ASEAN countries’ trades with East Asian, including China and Korea, have different forms of value-added trade. China appears to have the largest gross trade effects to ASEAN. On the other hand, Japan, USA, and Korea noticeably have very positive effects in terms of value-added not gross exports. Thirdly, from the scenario analysis, New Southern Policy is largely beneficial to Korean economy in terms of trade in value added. However, Korea should consider the effect of Chinese economic recession, which could occur in accordance with US-China Trade war. To make practical resolution and overcome global recession these days, Korea should make strategies utilizing FTAs with each ASEAN countries and examine conscientiously when it expand into the global market.

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