A Study on variability of small Hydro Power Generation Considering Climate change

초록

The clilmate change due to the Global Warming has brought the significant change in water distribution characteristics in time and space which cause the increase in floods and droughts. This alternation brings negative effects to people’s lifestyle, as well as the amount of power being generated by small hydro-power plant directly. This study analyzes how small hydro-power, which is arguably one of the renewable energy that has been bringing much attention since the past, has been impacted by the climate change. To analyze, the study selected a small hydro-power plant located at the upper part of Jucheon river called Anheung small hydro-power plant. The study collected data of rainfall from the weather station around the hydro-power plant and the future data was simulated by KMA RCM, which is a climate model. The future rainfalls are obtained for the target periods of 2011-2040(CASE 1), 2041-2070(CASE 2), and 2071~2100(CASE 3). Moreover, the study used the Tank model to estimate the amount of annual power generated from the plant for the future by using the simulated runoff. Lastly, the study compares the average amount of annual power for the present with the simulated average amount of annual power for the future. As the results, the future rainfall, runoff, and average amount of annual power were increased due to the climate change. However, the future extreme rainfalls are concentrated in the specific period which means the amount of water used for the power generation could be reduced and overflow is increase. So, for CASE 3, the amount of power generated is shown be decreased compare to CASE 2. Therefore, in conclusion, when the future small hydro-power plant is designed, the dam for the plant may have more reservoir capacity and the increased design flow for increasing the amount of power generated.