Scenario-Based Analysis of Energy Storage Needs in Jeju Island

초록

We develop a two-step mixed-integer linear programming framework to size storage for Jeju’s high-RE trajectory (2025?2038): Step 1 coarsely sizes long-duration hydrogen energy storage (HES) on 8-h timesteps; Step 2 refines hourly battery energy storage (BES) for intra-day balancing. Scenarios vary HVDC reverse-flow capability (High/Mid/Low) and must-run requirements. Required BES power is 130/50/10 MW (Low/Mid/High) in 2030, rising to 399/301/260 MW by 2038 (~31?34 MW yr?¹). Full-equivalent cycles decline from 236?344 to 161?185 yr?¹, indicating a shift from routine cycling to event-driven dispatch as aggregate capacity grows. Lower must-run reduces needs materially: in 2038, power falls ~22% and energy drops from 4,372 to 2,956 MWh (?32.4%), relaxing duration requirements more than peak power. By 2038, HES provides long-duration capability (e.g., 22.3 h) and, in the Low-HVDC case, supplies 59% of total storage energy capacity. Policy insight: HVDC alone may not relieve export constraints; co-optimizing storage with on-island flexibility?especially EV charging load shifting?can reduce nameplate capacity while raising per-unit utilization.