Reliability Estimation of the Buried Pipelines Using Boundary Condition

초록

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition such as ground subsidence, internal pressure and temperature variation for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The FORM(first order reliability method) is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with three cases of ground subsidence. This method obtains the failure probability of buried pipelines using the first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function. Using the information of varying stresses on the buried pipelines, we estimate the failure probability of pipelines in accordance with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, corrosion rate, material yield stress and thickness of pipeline on the failure probability of the buried pipelines with corrosion defect crossing ground subsidence region are systematically investigated by using a failure probability model.