Integrated GIS-AHP based assessment of earthquake vulnerability and risk for urban residential buildings in Muscat, Sultanate of Oman

초록

This study presents a cutting-edge framework for assessing earthquake vulnerability and risk in residential areas of Al-Seeb, Muscat Governorate (Sultanate of Oman). Drawing upon a rich dataset encompassing seismic, geotechnical, structural, environmental, and socioeconomic parameters, thematic vulnerability maps were developed using a GIS-based analytic hierarchy process (GIS-AHP). These were systematically integrated to produce comprehensive risk matrices. It has been noted that the Rusayl industrial estate emerged as a critical hotspot due to the clustering of industrial facilities and fuel stations near densely populated zones, amplifying hazard proximity. Physical vulnerability patterns largely mirrored geotechnical characteristics but were further shaped by urban density and infrastructure quality. A risk index was derived for each grid cell, enabling the formulation of a detailed microzonation map that categorizes Al-Seeb into five distinct risk zones. Central urban areas like Al-Hail North and segments of Old Al-Khoud plunged within the highest vulnerability category, while parts of Al-Mawaleh North exhibited a blend of high and very high risk, primarily due to aging infrastructure and insufficient retrofitting. Interestingly, Al-Maabilah showed signs of structural resilience, with 60% of buildings experiencing minor damage and only 20% sustaining major impacts. The robust database generated offers critical insights for policymakers, planners, and stakeholders, serving as a strategic tool for informed decision-making. The study's outcomes align well with Oman Vision 2040 and contribute directly to the goals of sustainable and disaster-resilient urban development outlined in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal (UN-SDG) 11. By embedding these insights into national urban planning and construction policies, the study supports risk-informed development and financial risk reduction for any futuristic projects in the Sultanate of Oman. In response to the shortcomings and delays of previous research, the present study is the first of its kind in the Arabian region, significantly contributing to the establishment of a sustainable and resilient Omani society.

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