Forecasting Construction Cost Index Using Interrupted Time-Series

초록

The Construction Cost Index (CCI) provided by the Engineering News-Record (ENR) is frequently used in predicting the cost of construction projects because it reflects a comprehensive trend in the construction costs. In previous studies, the CCI was forecasted using the time-series analysis methods. However, the effects of specific intervening factors such as economic recession and policy changes on the CCI data were neglected, thus compromising the reliability and accuracy of the forecast models. In this study, an interrupted time-series forecasting model was developed wherein the economic recession of 2008 was reflected in the forecasting model, which is an outlier identified to have significant impact on the CCI. The forecast result obtained using the interrupted timeseries forecasting model was better than that using the conventional forecast models such as the ARIMA and Holt-Winters exponential-smoothing models. The accurately forecasted CCI using the presented model will help in budget and bid planning as well as assessing the risk of future businesses.

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