Bass Model 기반의 접이식 컨테이너 수요 예측

초록

Trade imbalance among the nations or regions has been deepening as a result of economic globalization. This trade imbalance causes another imbalance, in the area of container supply and demand. That is, Asian countries including China suffer a shortage of containers for shipping their products, while the United States or EU countries have a surplus of empty containers after unloading the freight. To deal with this problem, over-supplied empty containers are moved to the locations where containers are needed, yet this is an inefficient solution to the problem. In an effort to resolve this inefficiency, many countries are preparing to develop and introduce foldable containers, which can be transported and stored in a bundle by folding 3 or 4 empty containers together, significantly enhancing the transport and storage efficiency of empty containers. However, the foldable container is still in its early stage, with test products produced or introduced to the market in Europe and the United States. In this paper, we studied demand forecasting for the foldable containers with Bass model which is based on the diffusion theory. For this purpose, the parameters of the Bass model were estimated, and the forecasting model of the foldable container demand was constructed and evaluated.

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