The Impact of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement on Port Throughput

초록

Free Trade Agreements(FTAs) have become central institutional mechanisms shaping global trade and regional integration. The Korea–China Free Trade Agreement (KCFTA), effective since December 2015, is particularly significant given the structure of bilateral trade between the two countries, in which maritime transport accounts for the overwhelming majority of merchandise flows by volume. This study examines the causal impact of the KCFTA on port-level throughput, focusing on major Korean and Chinese ports from 2008 to 2023. To address selection bias and strengthen causal inference, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework combined with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) is employed, with treatment ports defined as those that opened or expanded direct Korea–China routes. The results show that the KCFTA significantly increased cargo throughput at treated ports, generating an average annual gain of 127.9 million tons relative to matched controls. Placebo and pre-trend tests confirm the validity of the identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects are concentrated in small and medium-sized ports, likely reflecting capacity saturation at large scale hub ports. These findings provide micro-level evidence of FTA impacts on maritime logistics and offer policy implications for port development and regional trade integration.

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