국내 수소 생산을 위한 기술별 생산 최적 비율 분석 연구

초록

The Korean government has set a nationally determined contribution (NDC) target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, with the ultimate goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 (Cho, 2022). To reach this goal, the government plans to promote a hydrogen economy. Specific targets have been established for GHG emissions and hydrogen production, including a hydrogen sector emissions target of 8.4 million tCO2e by 2030 and 9 million tCO2e by 2050. This study employs a combinatorial approach to determine the optimal hydrogen production mix using three technologies: coal gasification (CG), steam methane reforming (SMR), and SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The analysis aims to identify the optimal hydrogen production ratio (%) by comprehensively evaluating the environmental and economic performance of these technologies. A combination method was applied to analyze production ratios ranging from 1% to 100%, resulting in 5,151 possible combinations. Among these, 1,949 combinations were selected based on Korea’s hydrogen production emission targets for 2030 and 2050. Using the selected combinations, the average production ratios were calculated to derive the final optimal hydrogen production mix. The results suggest that an optimal production ratio of 55.7% for SMR+CCS, 31.1% for SMR, and 13.2% for CG achieves an effective balance between environmental performance and economic efficiency, based on the assessment of GHG emissions and production costs per kilogram of hydrogen.

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