Comparative analysis of linear model and deep learning algorithm for water usage prediction : 물 사용량 예측을 위한 선형 모형과 딥러닝 알고리즘의 비교 분석

초록

It is an essential to predict water usage for establishing an optimal supply operation plan and reducing power consumption. However, the water usage by consumer has a non-linear characteristics due to various factors such as user type, usage pattern, and weather condition. Therefore, in order to predict the water consumption, we proposed the methodology linking various techniques that can consider non-linear characteristics of water use and we called it as KWD framework. Say, K-means (K) cluster analysis was performed to classify similar patterns according to usage of each individual consumer; then Wavelet (W) transform was applied to derive main periodic pattern of the usage by removing noise components; also, Deep (D) learning algorithm was used for trying to do learning of non-linear characteristics of water usage. The performance of a proposed framework or model was analyzed by comparing with the ARMA model, which is a linear time series model. As a result, the proposed model showed the correlation of 92% and ARMA model showed about 39%. Therefore, we had known that the performance of the proposed model was better than a linear time series model and KWD framework could be used for other nonlinear time series which has similar pattern with water usage. Therefore, if the KWD framework is used, it will be possible to accurately predict water usage and establish an optimal supply plan every the various event. © 2021 Korea Water Resources Association.

키워드