Predicting COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using Stringency and Nino Sea Surface Temperature Indices

초록

Most coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) models use a combination of agent-based and equation-based models with only a few incorporating environmental factors in their prediction models. Many studies have shown that human and environmental factors play huge roles in disease transmission and spread, but few have combined the use of both factors, especially for SARS-CoV-2. In this study, both man-made policies (Stringency Index) and environment variables (Nino SST Index) were combined to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in South Korea. The performance indicators showed satisfactory results in modeling COVID-19 cases using the Non-linear Autoregressive Exogenous Model (NARX) as the modeling method, and Stringency Index (SI) and Nino Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as model variables. In this study, we showed that the accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 transmission forecasts may be further improved by incorporating both the Nino SST and SI variables and combining these variables with NARX may outperform other models. Future forecasting work by modelers should consider including climate or environmental variables (i.e., Nino SST) to enhance the prediction of transmission and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

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