Modeling local service reliabilities for parcel distribution system

초록

Demand for express parcel delivery has been constantly increased in South Korea especially due to the growth of B2C e-commerce activities. It is imperative for parcel carriers to have good insights into the performance of their distribution networks with different levels of demand and to plan ahead for the adaptations to meet future demand changes. This paper proposes a framework to evaluate the likelihood of parcels arriving on-time to their destinations (local service reliability) with explicit consideration of their spatial distribution. The resulting maps of local service reliability allow us to identify specific locales that would suffer most from the capacity overflow in the network, thus pointing to areas that need immediate attention. Furthermore this paper attempts to identify potential factors that could affect the spatial variation of local service reliability.