수도권 택배 물동량 추정에 관한 탐색적 연구: 경기도를 중심으로

초록

Parcel delivery accounts for the largest share of urban living logistics and has become an integral part of people’s daily lives. Over the last decade, the volume of parcel delivery has increased rapidly at an annual average of over 11% and the number of delivery parcels consumed per capita have risen by almost 18% annually over the same period. The explosive growth of e-commerce and the COVID-19-driven preference for non-face-to-face consumption have impacted the parcel delivery industry significantly, and the demand for urban logistics is expected to continue to rise in the future. Traditionally, the problem of estimating parcel delivery volume for large populated areas has been seen as difficult because there are multiple companies that serve the areas and are unwilling to share parcel volume data. In this study, we use statistical techniques on data obtained from single delivery company to estimate total parcel delivery volume and predict future parcel volumes for the metropolitan area of Gyeonggi-do. The results of this study are expected to be used as fundamental guidelines for developing facilities and formulating policies for urban logistic companies in metropolitan areas.

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