Seasonal Flood Forecasts Using Climate Information

초록

The objectives of this study is to develop an early warning flood risk model for a river. A daily rainfall model that can be informed by observed climate information during the flood season as well as prior to the flood season is developed and tested. A model based on concurrent climate information could be used for instance with seasonal forecasts provided by the climate models as a robust approach to mechanistically downscaling rainfall from such models informed by the causal mechanisms identified in the models. The model using observed climate variables prior to the season would be useful for early warning at a month to a season prior to the start of the flood season. The models with a hydrologic model and a statistical model can predict floods on a river. It is expected that the methodology is very useful to forecast flood risk and to improve flood warning system considering observed or simulated climate information.