Urban Flood Risk Assessment Under Climate Variability by Non-stationary Frequency Analysis and XP-SWMM Model

초록

Hydrologic cycle factors such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and so on by climate change are severely changing. As a result, over the past few decades, potential impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. In Korea, heavy rainfalls which are more than 100mm/day were occurred in 385 times during the last ten years (1999-2008). It is 1.7 times of heavy rainfalls occurred in ‘70s-‘80s. Therefore, the climate change will affect extreme rainfall events. Extreme rainfall is the most important variable for the design of urban drainage system. So, the objective of this study is to estimate the impact assessment of climate variability on urban drainage system. We estimated the design rainfall using non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis which can reflect variability of external meteorological factor. Then, we evaluated impact of climate change on urban drainage system. The SWMM model was used for the flood discharge simulation in an urban drainage basin. The impact of climate change on future urban drainage system could be quantified by comparing with the result of present urban drainage system. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-자연-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. Keywords: Climate change, Design rainfall, Urban drainage system, SWMM