Demand Estimation Methodology For A New Air Route

초록

This study introduces a demand estimation method especially for a new air route to a promising destination. Utilizing the implications from previous studies, the derived demand is classified into four types (Local, Beyond, Behind and Bridge) and explanatory variables which have statistical significance are established by each type of demand. Distance, relative capacity compared with adjacent airports and detour ratio are considered as main independent variables. The equations using such variables and statistically significant coefficients are suggested as the model to make an estimation of derived demand for a new route. One of the strength that this study has can distinguish created demand from just converted or re-distributed demand and it is meaningful for an airport operator to establish an airport policy like charges and incentives to attract airlines.