Impact of climate change on SPI and SAD curve

초록

Recently, in Korea the occurrences of floods and droughts have been increased due to climate change. Korean government intends to develop assessment techniques for the evaluation of climate change effects on flood and drought disasters and also for the reduction and prevention of flood and drought disasters for public security. In this study, we estimated quantitative effect of climate change on drought. For this, we estimated Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and drought Severity-Area-Duration (SAD) curve on the Korean Peninsula using climate change scenario and climate model. For the climate model, CNCM3 was selected as the most proper model for Korean peninsula because it is describing meteorological conditions of Korea relatively well. The simulation results showed that the number of drought occurrences will be increase in the future. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed by downscaled monthly rainfall data and was used for the assessment of Korean drought characteristics due to climate change. Also SAD was estimated based on SPI. We compared SAD curves from the recorded rainfall data and the simulated rainfall data considering climate change. As the compared results based on the constructed SAD curves, the area of drought is expected to decrease during the 2010∼2039 period while the drought severity will be increase during the 2070∼2099 period. © 2011 ASCE.