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초록

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model and finite element analysis. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically analyzed by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline. Furthermore, the engineering results estimated by a failure probability model are compared with those by finite element analysis.