타지키스탄 독재체제의 지속가능성 연구 - ‘정치문화’(Political Culture)를 중심으로

초록

Tajikistan's current president, Emomali Rahmon, has become president for life through five presidential elections and four referendums since 1994. Excluding the 1994 presidential election when the civil war was in full swing, he received an average of 87.9% of the votes from voters in the four presidential elections held since the end of the war. He held a referendum on May 22, 2016 to abolish presidential term limits. 96.6% of voters overwhelmingly supported his proposal. In particular, Rahmon defeated challenges and checks from Leninabad, the existing largest local political faction, and the powerful ‘The United Tajik Opposition’ and achieved a long-term rule of 30 years until 2024. Like the first presidents of the four neighboring countries, Rahmon chose ‘nepotism’ as a way to strengthen his power, and like Nursultan Nazarbayev and Saparmurat Niyazov, he also pursued the cult of personality. Tajikistan's economy has not grown properly even after the civil war, but he has been in power stably for 30 years. In general, if the president of a certain country establishes a corrupt and authoritarian dictatorship through nepotism amidst a continuous economic downturn, there is a high possibility that the people will resist the regime. However, public anti-government protests in Tajikistan have not occurred since the end of the war. Rather, the people actively supported Rahmon in the presidential election and referendum. How can we understand a phenomenon like this? In order to resolve the above questions, this study aims to analyze the sustainability of Tajikistan's dictatorship from the perspective of ‘political culture’ formed in history, not from the official legal, institutional, and political system. It is expected that the customs, traditions, values, beliefs, and emotions of the people of Tajikistan who recognize Rahmon's political actions will be suitable for analyzing the formation and sustainability of the country's dictatorship system. The main contents of this study are as follows. First, the main theories of political culture and existing studies on political culture will be introduced and analyzed. Theories related to political culture studied by Gabriel Almond, Sidney Verba, Lucian Pye, and Roy Macridis will be introduced and analyzed. Second, the main political culture of Tajikistan will be introduced and analyzed. Based on the theories above, the political culture of Tajikistan, which is related to the sustainability of the dictatorship system, will be introduced and analyzed. Third, the possibility of change in Tajikistan's political culture will be predicted. In order for Tajikistan to develop into a democratic country, the existing political culture must disappear. Its probabilities will be predicted.

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