패널회귀분석을 활용한 항공화물의 가격 및 소득 탄력도 분석 연구

초록

Airports, as a major facility for handling high-value import and export cargo, have played an important role in developing Korea’s import and export industry. The number of commodities imported and exported through airports is about 199 based on 3 units of MTI, and as of 2020, the air cargo volume is about 1,117,086 tons. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the volume of air import and export cargo changes over time through price and income elasticity analysis. In this study, panel regression analysis was performed with monthly data from January 2011 to December 2020 for 49 items, and elasticity analysis was performed using a generalized least squares model, a fixed-effect model, and a random effects model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the price elasticity of air export cargo (-0.525∼-0.623) is higher than that of air import cargo (-0.354∼-0.435). In addition, the air cargo volume in 2020, when COVID-19 broke out, decreased compared to other years, and it was analyzed that air import cargo was more affected by COVID-19 than air export cargo. The limitation of this study is that in the case of air transport rates, which are the main explanatory variable that determines price elasticity, different conditions were applied to prices. In future studies, it is considered that additional research that equates price conditions will be necessary.

키워드