Causal Relationship between the regional economic growth and the air cargo increase in China

초록

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Granger causal relationship between the increase of air freight and economic growth in China. In particular, this paper tried to check what kind of causality appears depending on the geographical and industrial characteristics of the region, and economic size. For this purpose, this paper collected panel data for 20 years from 2000 to 2019 for 31 provinces in China, which are in total 620 observations. The methodology used for the analysis is the VECM method on each sub-group after going through the normal stationary test and the cointegration test. The conclusions of this paper are as follows. First, China has a bidirectional causal relationship between its economy and air freight at the national level. Second, geographically, a bidirectional causal relationship is shown in the Central region and, economically, in the middle-size region, but in advanced regions such as Bohai bay and Yangtze river, a Granger-causal relationship is shown in the direction from economic growth to air freight increase. This shows that the southeastern provinces of China have already entered the stage of economic maturity. Third, the Pearl River Delta and the Dongbei region show a causal relationship in the direction from air freight to economic growth. This can be said to reflect the geographical characteristics of each region and the level of economic growth in China.

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