Water balance analysis on upo wetland, Korea under climate change

초록

In recent, severe extreme floods and droughts have been frequently occurred due to global climate change and many researchers have performed their studies for the investigations of impacts of climate change, especially, on water resources. To do this, we used Global Circulation Models(GCMs) to simulate future climate scenarios but they provide the data of global scale and so we need 'downscaling' process to analyze regional scale data. This study used three types of statistical downscaling methods such as SDSM, LARS-WG, ANN and compared these methods. We transformed the climate variables of global scale to small scale through the methods. Then we applied the transformed data for water balance analysis of Upo wetland, Kyungsang Namdo province, Korea. That is, we compared the methods of SDSM, LARS-WG, ANN and investigated impact of climate change on hydrologic water balance on Upo Wetland. From the comparison of three methods, LARS-WG showed the most stable results, and water balance was analyzed by SWAT model. If we see the results from the simulation considering climate change, overall temperatures (max, mean, min) will be gradually increased and precipitation will be also somewhat increased in the future. And wet-day will be decreased, dry-day will be increased and so we could predict that intensive precipitation would be frequently occurred in the future. Hydrologic assessment for Upo wetland showed evapotranspiration will increase and the reservoir capacity will mainly depend on the amount of precipitation in the future. © 2011 ASCE.