Main trunk line container cargo forecasting for a port entrance channel dredging project: combining port choice and time-series models

초록

This paper aims at providing a practical framework of forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project in terms of evaluating its economic feasibility. Entrance channel improvement plan for the Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from the domestic shippers, discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate its future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The resulting market share of Incheon Port is used to forecast its future container volume brought by the potential port development scenarios.