2050년 미래 글로벌 스포츠 경쟁력 강화와 인재 양성 정책을 위한 시나리오 연구

초록

This study aimed to develop policy scenarios for strengthening global sport competitiveness and cultivating sport industry talent toward 2050. To this end, the study combined the Delphi method and scenario planning. Two policy agendas were selected: strengthening global sport competitiveness and developing innovative talent for the sport industry. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted with eight experts in sport administration, international sport exchange, sport science, sport industry, and physical education. The results identified key future drivers for each agenda and constructed 2×2 scenario matrices based on the most influential and uncertain factors. As a result, eight future scenarios were developed, and major wild cards such as pandemics, fiscal crisis, climate and energy crisis, changes in international sport diplomacy, and AI-driven job disruption were considered. The findings suggest that future sport policy should be designed as a long-term strategic system linking technological innovation, public investment, talent development, ethical governance, and international cooperation.

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