코로나19의 해양수산부문 파급효과: 1국 CGE모형의 활용

초록

It has been difficult to look ahead the global economy since the outbreak of the COVID19 pandemic in 2020, but the economy is turning into a positive growth as vaccines were developed at the end of 2020 and the formation of collective immunity could be foreseeable in some countries. However, the economic situation will not improve significantly in countries where the formation of collective immunity is delayed. In particular, damages to ocean and fisheries industries where face-to-face activities are crucial are expected to persist for a long time. In this context, this paper aims to construct a Korea Maritime Institute General Equilibrium Model(KMI-GEM) which embraces the effects of COVID19 in both the supply and demand side, and could estimate the effect of COVID19 on each industries in a long term. As the estimation results of this paper, the COVID19’s aftermath to the oceans and fisheries industry could be more severe than that of other industries. In particular, the ship and offshore plant construction and repair industry is expected to decrease in exports(-14.29%), followed by the offshore and fishery equipment manufacturing industry (-6.97%) and the aquatic product processing industry (-2.27%).

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