Impact of Climate Change on Flood Discharge and Water Level in Sumjin River Basin, Korea.

초록

In recent years, the extreme weather events due to the climate change are frequently occurred over the world. Korean peninsular has also suffered from natural disaster by localized extreme events and the damage tends to be rapidly increasing. Therefore, the estimation of flood discharge in real time could be a very important issue for the flood damage prevention and reduction according to climate change. This study is to assess the climate change impact on flood discharge and flood water level in Sumjin river basin considering the climate change. Sumjin, Yochun, and Bosung rivers are selected for the study, and model was constructed. We used KMA-RCM climate model provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration for the simulation of future climate data on target periods (Target I : 2011∼2040, Target II : 2041 ∼ 2070, Target Ⅲ : 2071∼2100) and the flood discharges were estimated using the future climate data HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS model. Then HEC-RAS model was used for investigating the variation of water level due to the climate change at Songjung station which is the basin outlet. The results are compared and examined with the previous studies analyzed without consideration of climate change. Those results could be used as the basic information for the future disaster prevention planning under climate change. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No.2011-0028564). Keywords : Climate change, KMA-RCM , Flood Discharge, Flood Water Level