항공화물 수요와 주요 거시 경제지표 간 인과관계 분석 연구- 한국발 미주행 항공화물 중심으로

초록

This study empirically analyzes the dynamic causal relationships between Korea–U.S. air cargo demand and major economic indicators using monthly data from January 2015 to December 2024. The explanatory variables include Korea’s Industrial Production Index (IPI), the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the U.S. Inventory-to-Sales Ratio, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between air cargo demand and the selected logistics-economic indicators. Based on these results, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to examine both long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. In addition, Granger causality tests are conducted to investigate the lead–lag structure among variables, revealing that the Industrial Production Index is the most significant leading indicator explaining variations in air cargo demand. By analyzing air cargo demand from a system perspective linked to global supply chains and ㅡmajor economic indicators, this study extends conventional approaches that rely on single macroeconomic variables and provides meaningful academic and practical implications.

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